|
 |
 |
|
Timing Toast: There's an art of knowing when. Never try to guess. Toast until it smokes and then twenty seconds less. (Grook by Piet Hein) Pleasure and anxiety, anticipation and dread shape and define the quest for profits in trading. Confidence and a positive attitude are required to succeed in a contest (such as in tennis, or chess) where the best players are pitted against each other. Attrition, not skill, ultimately wins the game. Trend-followers are used to the game of attrition. The waiting periods can be long and drawn out between the major trends and price shifts that ultimately render the currency markets profitable to a degree not matched by any other market, at least not since the birth of floating exchange rates some 30 years ago. We observe that periods of apathy are followed by burst of sudden excitement caused by a fast price shift of 100 or 200 points within a few hours. Those are opportunities for astute campaigns. Usually no such opportunities offer themselves during the subsequent day(s). By then the previous apathy of market participants has turned into eagerness to catch more, or at least the tail end of opportunities just missed. This is when whipsaws occur and traders become clueless again. Once the cluelessness reaches a certain level, apathy sets in and the cycle starts afresh. It is then that the trigger of our systematic approach must be ready for another unexpected price shift. |
|
|
|
|
|