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BEWARE OF THE IDES OF MARCH The soothsayer's warning to Julius Caesar has forever imbued the 15th of March with a sense of foreboding. While systematic trading does not care about outside influences, it now definitely has to cope with increased volatility caused by military successes and failures instantly reported in the media. Volatility has a nasty habit of reversing the path of least resistance abruptly, causing gain-pains in the process. Successful trading, like most competitive sports or warfare, is a game of attrition: there is no gain without pain. Success is achieved on a path strewn with obstacles and the unexpected. What professional portfolio management provides is appropriate management in dealing with adversity as well as with opportunity. When it comes to positioning in the market, we must find path of least resistance and must not rely on interpretation of events around us. "Beware of the Ides of March" announces the foreboding of risk after success. |
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